Overnight low temperatures will cool to the mid teens to mid 20s. Gusty winds will lead to wind chill values in the single digits for those in the Alleghenies. High temperatures will top out at around 40 degrees for the I-95 corridor with the rest of the area staying in the upper 20s to 30s. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the long term period as cold air ushers in the area with northwesterly flow. Higher gusts are possible along at higher elevations. In addition to snow in the Alleghenies, a strong pressure gradient between the departing low and high pressure building in to our west will result in northwesterly winds gusting 25 to 35 knots on Tuesday. Strong northwesterly flow will lead to upslope snow showers along and west of the Alleghenies through Tuesday morning before dry air moves in during the afternoon. On Tuesday, a strong area of low pressure will be exiting the region off the New England Coast allowing for conditions to begin drying out for most. Low temperatures drop into the 20s to low 30s for most of the area by Monday night. Temperatures remain fairly steady even through Sunday night, resulting in Monday's highs occurring before sunrise as temperatures fall through the day with the passage of the cold front. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the mountains to the upper 50s by the Bay on Sunday. Winter Storm Watches are in effect Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Keeping the strong winds in mind, blowing snow is a possible concern as well. Guidance has trended higher with snow totals, with 6-10 inches expected along the Allegheny front and locally higher amounts at elevations above 2800 ft. SNOW.Upslope snow becomes the story on the back end starting Monday morning. The wind threat diminishes somewhat Monday evening, but likely remain elevated for the higher elevations into Tuesday. As the low departs to the NE, winds strengthen over much of the area, with gusts up to 45 mph possible and higher gusts along the ridges. Sunday night the strongest winds will be restricted to east of the Blue Ridge, with gusts 35-40 mph. A more easterly track would keep more of the area out of the warm sector and resulting in more stability and lower winds ahead of the system, while a more westerly track would mean higher winds. The tight gradient likely yields strong winds ahead and behind it regardless, but track will determine intensity. Easterly winds pick up east of the Blue Ridge starting Sunday afternoon and cover most of the area by Sunday night. WIND.Damaging winds are also a concern, both ahead of and behind the system. Flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas are possible as a result, and a Flood Watch has been issued for Sunday night through early Monday morning. 1 to 1.5 inches could call in a 6 hour period overnight. Most of the area can expect 2 to 3 inches of rain during this time, with locally higher amounts along the Blue Ridge and near and east of I-95. RAIN.Steady rain starts Sunday morning and continues into Monday, with the heaviest rainfall expected Sunday night. The impacts of this system are highly dependent on the exact track of the low, which remains uncertain. As it treks north, the low is expected to intensify as it interacts with an upper trough and takes on a negative tilt over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night into Monday. Surface low pressure currently located over the Gulf of Mexico will track along the East Coast Sunday through Monday. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night However, the bulk of the rainfall will be Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Some very light rain or drizzle is possible along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay after 09Z. This activity will linger into Tuesday before temperatures moderate with high pressure mid to late next week.Ĭlouds will continue to thicken and lower rapidly after midnight as low-level moisture advects in from the east and northeast. The surface low and its associated cold front will swing through the area late Sunday into Monday bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, falling temperatures, and mountain snow showers. UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DCĪn anomalously strong low pressure system will approach the region Sunday.
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